1	Canada’s Demographics
2	Reading Bone Chapter 4
3	Canada’s Population Canada has more than 33 million people The birth rate is low, and falling Except among aboriginal peoples Population grows now mainly through immigration From global and increasingly non-European sources Immigrant fertility props up the birth rate
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5	Canada’s Population Changes in Canada’s economy drive internal migration, and shift population growth Growth connected to resource sector especially of energy resources Decline of manufacturing jobs Population and employment shifts westwards to BC, Prairies.
6	Canada’s Population Canada’s population is growing rapidly older Thanks to decades of declining fertility and improvements in sanitation, health Growth of significant ‘old-age’ dependency
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10	Population Size Canada 1867: 3.4 million people Canada 2010: 33.3 million people
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12	Why Has Population Grown? Growth comes from three direct sources: Natural increase (more births than deaths) Immigration (more arrive than leave) Territorial expansion (eg 360,000 Newfoundlanders join Canada in 1949).
13	Population Growth Shaped by Indirect Factors Economic growth and opportunity is most important: Attracts migrants, especially young adults who then boost the birth rate
14	Population Distribution Where do people live? What kinds of settlements?
15	Population Distribution Population Density People per unit of territory Usually people/km2 Canada 2010: 33.311 Million people 9.2 Million km2 of land area 3.6 people/km2
16	Population density Population/km2 is known as crude density Not all the land is easy to live in Other measures possible: Population per unit of farmland Only 11% of Canada can be farmed 32.8 people/km2 farmland Only 5% can produce crops 72.2 people/km2 cropland
17	Population Density Canada is thinly populated overall but More densely populated when it comes to feeding people People per km2 of cropland Canada: 72 Netherlands: 1829
18	Population Density Varies Within Canada 13.4 people/km2 in Ontario Much higher in south, lower in north 0.03 people/km2 in NWT/Yukon/Nunavut
19	The Ecumene Recognizes that not all of Canada is thickly inhabited Much is almost uninhabited Ecumene: The part of Canada where 99% of the people live
20	"2001" 2001
21	Canada’s Population Core 60% of the population lives in the Great Lakes-St Lawrence Lowlands 19 million people, 75% of the major cities Manufacturing, intensive commercial farming Biggest City: Toronto 5 million
22	Secondary Population Zone Contains 1/3 of population, 12 million people Extends to the edge of the agricultural area beyond the population core Biggest city: Vancouver 2.1 million
23	Sparsely Populated Zone Boreal forest Contains 1% of the population No major population centres, but there are resource towns Biggest city: Fort McMurray 52,000 pop
24	Almost uninhabited zone Northern belts of boreal forest to the tundra Less than 1% of the population\Isolated centres Biggest City: Labrador City 7200 pop
25	Urban Population Canada is a highly urbanized society 80% live in urban areas And most urban people live in large cities Canada became majority urban in the 1920s Ontario, Quebec, BC became majority-urban first West, Maritimes became majority urban only circa 1960
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27	Population Change Natural Increase Until 1986 most of Canada’s population growth came from births exceeding deaths
28	Toronto: Natural Increase
29	Population Change People used to have large families Especially on farms
30	Population Change Traditionally death rates for young children were high So a high birth rate compensated for this High child death rates were due to Infectious disease Polluted drinking water
31	Toronto 1905 The public water supply was unsafe to drink Contained raw sewage No sewage treatment, no treatment of drinking water Waterborne diseases prevalent
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34	Reducing Mortality Need to Treat drinking water, sewage Improve childhood vaccinations Protect food supplies, especially milk Basic sanitation measures With these in place, mortality drops A mortality transition
35	Toronto: Mortality Transition
36	Toronto: Mortality Transition
37	Fertility Transition With improved rates of child survival having lots of babies gets expensive Easier to have high material living standards with a smaller family Improvements in the status of women More complex than the mortality transition
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44	Total Fertility Rate (TFR) The number of births the average woman expects in her lifetime A Total Fertility Rate of 2.1 Means births match deaths In 1961 TFR was 3.8 in Canada At the height of the baby boom In 2007 TFR was 1.6 in Canada Below replacement level
45	Population Change Because most immigrants arrive as young adults And will start families soon High levels of immigration tend to boost the birthrate So without immigration, Canada’s TFR would be even lower.
46	The Demographic Transition Big changes in the economy change human demographics There have been 3 main ‘transitions” Development of hunting Development of farming Development of industry We are still living through this global transition
47	Demographic Transition Model
48	Age-Sex Structure Balance of ages and sexes in a population It varies over time and place
49	"Russia 2003" Russia 2003
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51	Canada Population pyramids over time
52	Population Structure Bears the marks of population history Carries implications for population future Is dynamic over time and space Conditions the needs of the population Canada and Russia both have an aging population
53	Variations over space: within a city
54	Variations over space: within city
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58	Ageing of Canada Baby boomers approaching retirement may not get much Canada pension may outlive RRSPs and other savings may bust the health care system Ontario faces worker shortages birth-rate too small migration not replacing retirements
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63	Career advice If you can’t get into teacher’s college Become a funeral director Train at Humber College Possibility of on-line sales
64	Immigration
65	Immigration Canada has a long history of significant immigration Actual peak year for immigration was 1912-13 Since 1950 sustained high levels of immigration Relatively unusual among advanced industrial economies Our low birth rate, age structure justify significant immigration
66	Immigration 13 million immigrants to Canada in C20th Arrivals peak in 1910s population was still small West was settling, Immigration spikes with short term-economic booms Slowdown in the 1920s-1930s Economic slump
67	Immigration Renewed immigration post 1945 Sustained economic boom Canadian wages slightly higher than US Immigration broadens 1960s onwards Highest sustained immigration in 1990s: 2.2 million
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69	Immigrant Origins Pre 1940s Britain & Ireland, NW Europe Some SE, E Europe Severe restrictions on immigration from Asia: Head Tax etc.,
70	Immigrant Origins Post 1945: Rise in SE Europeans, Italy, Greece Increase in Asian immigration Immigration Reforms 1960s Asian immigration increases Greatest diversity of immigrant origins
71	Immigrant Settlement Early C20th: Most immigrants went to farming districts: the West Mid C20th and later Most immigrants head for the cities Canada an urban economy Cities develop huge immigrant populations
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74	Urban Immigrant Population Toronto: 44% are immigrants Vancouver: 38% are immigrants And many more are children, descendents of immigrants Some cities have few immigrants Quebec: 3% Some cities have few recent immigrants Hamilton: 23% immigrants, only 5% in past 5 years
75	Demographics of Immigrants Tend to be young adults And therefore tend to be fertile Tend to be better educated than the general population Most have adequate language skills, but some do not Tend to become English speakers
76	Faultlines New vs Old Canadians (immigration) Aboriginal vs non-aboriginal French vs English Urban vs Rural Centralist vs decentralist
77	The Faultlines Are evolving Produce new combinations Growth of urban aboriginal populations Decline in Francophones outside Quebec Immigration adding to urban populations Growth of cities outside central Canada
78	Old vs New Canadians Old idea that an immigrant arrives and gradually turns into a mainstream Canadian Or at least the next generation does Does not seem to be happening to some recent visible minority immigrants Difficulties in getting jobs suited to qualifications
79	Old vs New Canadians Despite not having immigrated, aboriginals do not function as ‘old Canadians’ Slow to receive the benefits of Canadian society Suffered from attempts at assimilation Strong tendency to seek enhanced distinctiveness
80	Aboriginal People Given a segregated existence in C19th-C20th Reserves Deprived of Canadian civil rights until 1959 Assimilation a goal 1870s-1970s Residential schools damage cultural integrity
81	Aboriginal People Granted the federal vote only in 1959 Controlled their band funds only from 1958 Gradual acceptance of land claims 400 settled 1970-2009 855 to go Trend towards Aboriginal people gaining greater community autonomy, self-government Runs counter to ‘assimilation’
82	Immigration Increasingly immigration comes from global sources Especially the population giants of China, and Indian subcontinent Population growing faster from immigration than from fertility Has huge cultural implications
83	Large-Scale Immigration Will change Canadian culture May aid liberalisation, tolerance, cultural pluralism Add to the cultural richness Give us interesting restaurants
84	Large-Scale Immigration May nurture cultural conflict, cultural territoriality Power of traditional elites, charter groups bound to be challenged ‘un-Canadian’ values may be imported Is this a problem?
85	Large-Scale Immigration Will eventually challenge that English-French faultline Canadian culture beginning to wear a multicultural face
86	Immigration Tends to flow to certain major cities, and some provinces Ontario, Quebec, BC, Alberta Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Calgary Reflects economic opportunity, immigrant contact networks 95% of new immigrants live in large urban centres
87	Immigration Major urban centres develop ethnic communities, enclaves But increasingly these are shifting to the suburbs
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89	Aboriginal Populations Growing rapidly compared to the rest of Canada Thanks mainly to fertility 500,000 aboriginals in Canada c. 1492 Population had crashed to 106,000 1911 Population surge from late 1940s 220,000 by 1961 1,320,000 in 2001 In 1990s Saskatchewan was on track to become a majority-aboriginal province
90	Aboriginal Populations Younger and more fertile than the majority of Canadians
91	Transition to Demographic Modernity
92	Aboriginal Populations For most industrial societies modernity brought a demographic transition Mortality drops first, followed by fertility For aboriginal societies, encounter with “modernity” was painful Disruption of aboriginal culture, economy boosted mortality, weakened fertility Signs of improvement now
93	Aboriginal Populations Over the longer term, assimilation is an issue Aboriginal people mix with other folk Legal and cultural identification of “aboriginal” will gradually apply to fewer people Some groups have already lost their language
94	French vs English Historically, French was only spoken in some parts of Canada, and among some segments of the population Quebec, eastern New Brunswick, northern & eastern Ontario But French-speaking areas had English-speaking minorities Eastern townships of Quebec West island of Montreal English was more widespread
95	French vs English The traditional duality of Canadian culture “Two nations warring in the bosom of a single state” Lord Durham Survival of French language, French culture has been a touchy issue in Canadian political history
96	French vs English French given special status to help preserve it One of Canada’s two official languages Used in federal services, nationally Bilingualism required in for military officers French the official language of Quebec Provinces encouraged to establish/preserve French language rights
97	French vs English Immigration brings in people who can speak one official language or another But many who speak neither The touchy issue of what language they should learn You can only send your kids to school in English in Quebec if you attended English-speaking schools in Quebec All others are schooled in French
98	French vs English Ontario has significant French-speaking population Eastern Ontario, Ottawa Valley Northern Ontario (Sudbury, North Bay, Chapleau) Several French-speaking colleges and universities But Ontario has many more immigrant ‘ethnics’ Far more Chinese than French-speakers It will soon be easier to run “Chinese immersion” schooling than French immersion
99	French vs English French speakers more likely to pick up English than the other way round English-speaking universities in Quebec always have strong enrollment Declining percentage of French speakers outside Quebec Declining percentage of English speakers within Quebec
100	French vs English A political issue which could lead to Canada’s breakup Quebec a distinct society
101	Core-Periphery Gradual population shifts towards economic opportunity Maritimes and Atlantic Canada lose population to Central and Western Canada Western Canada grows fastest Picks up migrants from central Canada, the East
102	Core-Periphery Shift of population signals an eventual shift of political power From central and Eastern Canada to the west Already we see a shift of economic power
103	Core-Periphery Liberals generally choose a leader from Ontario or Quebec But have lost almost all their voting support in the non-urban West A party declining with its dwindling political core?
104	Core-Periphery Conservatives trade on western resentment of central Canada Like the Reform Party before them Strong in west, weaker in Ontario & Quebec
105	Core-Periphery Politics continues to work unevenly over geographic space
106	Core-Periphery Population shifts leave Canada in political limbo Old-style dominance by central Canada is fading Emerging strength of the west is insufficient to produce majority government
107	Urban Populations We have already mentioned the historic growth of Canada’s urban populations What about population patterns within cities?
108	Urban Populations Historically the wealthier people abandoned the inner city for the suburbs Poor, immigrant ethnics moved into the cheap inner-city areas Poverty had an inner-city face
109	Urban Populations Since 1970 a tendency in many Canadian cities for middle and upper-income people to move back into the inner city Still remain in some suburban areas Poor, immigrant ethnics moved to the suburbs Toronto has a “white” core, with a visible-minority suburban collar
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112	David Hulchanski Noted that poverty in Toronto has a new geography after 1970 Poverty is increasingly suburban Divides the city into three zones:
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115	Faultlines Previously we questioned Bone’s faultlines There might be others we could add One candidate may be this inner city vs suburban ‘faultline’ Makes immigrant “assimilation” issues much more difficult Perhaps a consequence of Ontario’s relative economic decline?