and other universities say planning experts. Partly that's a result of demographics - the effects of the "double cohort" (the year both OAC and Grade 12 students graduate) and the Baby Boom's baby "echo" - but partly it's also because of York's own changing nature. The University has moved from being an institution on the fringe of Metro to finding itself at the centre of enormous growth in the GTA.
The University is also next door to York Region - one of the fastest growing urban areas in Canada. Both demographics and urban growth are going to place additional stress on an already space-strapped university, say academic planners. Add to that mix the large numbers of faculty who are retiring (and who must be replaced in the next few years) and you have the makings for serious change. Luckily, a number of new planning proposals may help York cope.
"The real issue is not the double cohort, but the demographic growth, the 'echo boom' that's putting another 90,000 additional students into the Ontario university system between now and 2010," says Dr. Lorna R. Marsden, York's president. "We're preparing. We've been part of a provincial study. We've been making presentations within the University's administrative forums, the Board of Governors, Senate, and anywhere else we can identify."
Ontario is facing the greatest increase in demand for university opportunities in more than 30 years, according to the Council of Ontario Universities (COU). In 1999 COU published the report, Ontario's Students, Ontario's Future, outlining the pressures on Ontario's postsecondary institutions. Several factors are contributing to increased demand for postsecondary education, COU reports. Specifically, there will be an increase in the 18- to 24-year-old population, rising rates of university participation, changing workplace requirements (advanced degrees, knowledge workers, training in IT, etc.), and the impact of secondary school reform (the double cohort).
There will be 190,000 more young people in Ontario by 2010, and demands for spots in Ontario's universities have been growing, with a projected potential for 88,900 more full-time university students enrolled by the end of the decade. Secondary school reform will create a peak in demand in about five years and could result in the need to accommodate an additional 33,500 students.
Demand for full-time university enrolment will likely increase by approximately 25 to 40 per cent by the end of the next decade, COU reports. And participation rates at university in the 18- to 24-year-old age group could grow from 22 per cent to 25 per cent as more people seek to attend university. All this growth means universities will need more new faculty too. Between 11,000 and 13,000 new faculty will be needed to meet increased enrolment demand, offset faculty retirements and lower the student/faculty ratio which is now 21 per cent higher than the average of the other nine provinces.
