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Predictive modelling of COVID-19 in Canada to inform public health measures

July 23 @ 8:30 pm - 9:30 pm

Speaker:  Dr. Nick Ogden, Director, Public Health Risk Sciences Division National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)         

Date, Time: Thursday, July 23, 2020 8:30 pm – 9:30 pm (EST)

Abstract: This presentation will encompass modelling at the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) to understand possible trajectories of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada under different scenarios for public health measures (also called Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions). The presentation will introduce the modelling approaches, and have a particular focus on the public health interventions that need to be in place to prevent a resurgence of the epidemic, in what we think is a largely naïve Canadian population, as Canada re-opens. These modelling studies provide policy makers with information they need to develop policies as the lifting of restrictive closures of workplaces, schools, universities and social meeting places begins. In particular, the work to date focuses on the needs for detection and isolation of cases, tracing of contacts with cases and their quarantine, and the likely continued need for members of the public to physical distance at work and leisure. The impact of importation of cases when borders open will also be discussed.

Dr. Nick Ogden is a UK-trained veterinarian (ULiverpool, 1983). After 10 years of mixed clinical practice, he completed a doctorate in disease ecology at UOxford in 1996. During the six years he spent as a professor at the Faculty of Veterinary Science, ULiverpool, he conducted research into the ecology and epidemiology of vector-borne diseases of public health importance in Europe and those of importance to livestock production in Africa. In 2002 he moved to Canada, and continued research on the ecology of Lyme disease and other zoonoses and climate change as a research scientist at the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). He is now Director of Public Health Risk Sciences division within the NML of PHAC, assessing risk by study and modelling of the ecology, epidemiology and genetic diversity of vectors and zoonotic and vector-borne micro-organisms, assessing impacts of climate change on zoonoses and vector-borne diseases, and developing tools for public health adaptation. He is currently leading the PHAC COVID-19 modelling team.