{"id":14134,"date":"2022-03-31T13:44:47","date_gmt":"2022-03-31T17:44:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/?p=14134"},"modified":"2022-05-18T13:09:25","modified_gmt":"2022-05-18T17:09:25","slug":"fully-re-opening-could-lead-to-spring-resurgence-of-covid-19-new-modelling-suggests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/2022\/03\/31\/fully-re-opening-could-lead-to-spring-resurgence-of-covid-19-new-modelling-suggests\/","title":{"rendered":"Fully re-opening could lead to spring resurgence of COVID-19, new modelling suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.yorku.ca\/2022\/03\/31\/fully-re-opening-could-lead-to-spring-resurgence-of-covid-19-new-modelling-suggests\/\">Media release from March 31, 2022<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Re-opening to pre-pandemic levels will lead to a resurgence of COVID-19 infections, peaking in late March or April, new modelling research from York University has found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, the researchers found that without more robust PCR testing availability, the number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario and Canada are more than twice as large as reported. In Toronto, it\u2019s 1.97 times higher than reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/03\/Huaiping-Zhu-edited-1024x1024.jpg\" alt=\"Huaiping Zhu\" class=\"wp-image-14135\" width=\"211\" height=\"211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/03\/Huaiping-Zhu-edited-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/03\/Huaiping-Zhu-edited-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/03\/Huaiping-Zhu-edited-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/03\/Huaiping-Zhu-edited-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/03\/Huaiping-Zhu-edited.jpg 1895w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 211px) 100vw, 211px\" \/><figcaption><em>Professor Huaiping Zhu<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe current limited availability of PCR testing in many provinces meant cases were drastically underreported,\u201d says York University Professor <a href=\"https:\/\/huaiping.mathstats.yorku.ca\/\">Huaiping Zhu<\/a> of the Faculty of Science and the corresponding author of the study. \u201cIt\u2019s important to continue to adhere to isolation protocols and get vaccinated to blunt the spread of the virus.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The paper, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2468042722000197\">Projections of the transmission of the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario and Canada using surveillance data following recent changes in testing policies<\/a>, published in the journal Infectious Disease Modelling, looked at cases and severe outcomes data from Jan. 1 to Feb. 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new model was designed to capture under-reported cases considering the new testing guidelines, social behaviours and booster vaccine campaign for the Omicron variant for Toronto, Ontario and Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe conducted analyses on the impact of PCR testing capacity, self-testing, different levels of reopening and vaccination coverage on cases and severe outcomes,\u201d says Zhu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The researchers note that by keeping partial restrictions in place, such as capacity limits in public spaces, promoting self-testing or allowing more access to PCR tests, along with isolation for those who test positive, would mitigate the resurgence of cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Testing alone will not stop a resurgence. It\u2019s important to follow public health policies based on tests results that will help control transmission of COVID-19 and its variants, says Zhu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Media release from March 31, 2022 Re-opening to pre-pandemic levels will lead to a resurgence of COVID-19 infections, peaking in late March or April, new modelling research from York University has found. In addition, the researchers found that without more robust PCR testing availability, the number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario and Canada are more [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1202,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,5],"tags":[238,37,25,26,51,137,237,38,87],"class_list":["post-14134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","category-mathematics-statistics","tag-disease-modelling","tag-everyone","tag-faculty-of-science","tag-keele-campus","tag-mathematics-and-statistics","tag-news","tag-public-health","tag-research","tag-stay-informed"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fully re-opening could lead to spring resurgence of COVID-19, new modelling suggests - Faculty of Science<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.yorku.ca\/science\/2022\/03\/31\/fully-re-opening-could-lead-to-spring-resurgence-of-covid-19-new-modelling-suggests\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fully re-opening could lead to spring resurgence of COVID-19, new modelling suggests - Faculty of Science\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Media release from March 31, 2022 Re-opening to pre-pandemic levels will lead to a resurgence of COVID-19 infections, peaking in late March or April, new modelling research from York University has found. 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