Events

Title:  What triggered the largest outbreak of Dengue fever in Guangzhou?

         ---A predictive modeling for dengue outbreaks

Speaker: Haitao Song

Abstract: As the world’s fastest-spreading mosquito-borne disease, dengue has become a severe public health concerns in the world. In 2014, Guangzhou suffered from the worst dengue outbreak in China over the past two decades, resulting in more than 37,382 cases.  Since the beginning of 2023, dengue outbreaks of significant magnitude have been recorded in endemic regions worldwide. There have been extensive and intensive modelling studies of the transmission and outbreaks of dengue. To understand the mechanisms of dengue outbreaks, we develop a hybrid model with weather conditions, in particularly health resources designated to control. We also define novel indices for predicting the risk of dengue outbreaks which can serve as an improved forecasting tool for early warning of mosquito-borne diseases. Data from Guangzhou on vector abundance, cases reported and weather conditions will be used to validate the modelling predictions.

LAMPS Weekly Group Meeting

Sept. 21, Thursday, 9:30-10:30

Speaker: Professor Guihong Fan, Columbus State University, USA

Title:  The Impact of Avian Species Diversity on the Transmission Dynamics of West Nile Virus

Abstract: There are many compartmental models in literature about West Nile virus (WNv), but most of them ignore the impact of bird species diversity. In this work, we formulate a system of delay differential equations to model the transmission of WNv with an emphasis on the impact of bird species diversity. We classify birds into n species and for each species, we define a competent index D(Rj) which is a function of species specific basic reproduction number Rj . We also find the basic reproduction number R0 for the model with n species of birds. Study shows that if one more species of birds with the lowest competitent index D(Rj) is added to the model, then the basic reproduction number R0 decreases. This is consistent with the field study by biologists from Washington University showing that the more diverse a bird population is in an area, the less chance humans have of exposure to WNv. This is a joint work with Prof. Huaiping Zhu.

Speaker: Yi Tan, York University

Abstract: As a multi-host virus, Mpox (monkeypox) virus cannot be eradicated. Natural reservoir host species sustains pathogen persistence, while accidental hosts can serve as dead-end hosts, not contributing to disease maintenance. The spillovers of the virus from reservoir host to accidental host reflects the possibility of the pathogen crossing species barriers and could trigger outbreaks or epidemics in accidental host population. Therefore, it is important to understand the spillover mechanisms and assess the thresholds for the virus to establish in the accidental host. In this presentation, I will present a compartmental model and study of the threshold dynamics of the spillover of Mpox from the reservoir host into accidental host.