Change

6 External Forces That Cause It		Why We Need To Know About It		What We Need To Know About it		Issues in Mapping Change
Demographic Economic Physical Technological Political/Legal Socio-Cultural		To predict it To adapt to it		Sources of it Underlying Causes of it		Extent of Controllability Probability of Occurrence Locus, Magnitude &     Intensity of Impact Priority

6 External Forces That Cause It (example from a city drug rehabilitation programme)

Alternative Planning Approaches

Probability of Future Occurrence

Extent of Controllability                    Certain                              Uncertain

Four Classes of Change	Type and  Planning Horizon	Examples at	Examples for your Social Product
Turbulent	fast & vast  1-2 year horizon
Unstable	fast but small 2-3 year horizon
Transitional	slow but vast 3-5 year horizon
Stable	stable 5-20 year horizon

Magnitude of Change

Speed of Change                 Large                         Small

Exercise Classes of Change What changes do you expect will affect York as an educational institution, in each of these categories?  What changes do you expect will happen that will affect your social product? How will you address them?

Scenarios Construction
            What may happen in the future and what is the likelihood of it’s happening?
SWOT Analysis – traditional business method
Issue Identification and Analysis Method

For each environment, identify significant trends, major issues, and who is for or against:
Demographic, Economic, Physical, Technological, Political/Legal, Socio/Cultural

Analyzing the Behaviour of Target Adopters

The role of the social marketer is to move the target adopter from holding no belief about the issue to holding a belief, then to having an attitude toward it, and finally to internalizing it as a value. 

Adoption Processes
(you may recognize the hierarchies from Introductory Marketing, and if you've taken it, Consumer Behaviour) 

Hierarchy	Conditions	Example	Recommended Action
Learn-Feel-Do	High involvement Clear differences between alternatives	Living a more productive lifestyle	Encourage Word-of-Mouth communication
Do-Feel-Learn	High involvement Few differences between alternatives Cognitive Dissonance Attribution Theory	Using condom	Find out what gets to people most and use that in your communications
Learn-Do-Feel	Low involvement Few differences between alternatives	Malnutrition	Repeat the message to get people to try it

Four Adoption Processes

Perceived Differences Among Alternatives

Involvement          Low                                  High

4. Multi-Path Adoption – following more than one of these three

Exercise Learning Hierarchy Which learning hierarchy do you expect your target adopters to follow? Why?

Learn

Sources of Learning Personal Non-personal The adoption experience itself

Timing of Learning Time different information flows at different stages depending on learning process target adopters follow

How Target Adopter Evaluates Learning What is the potential set of attributes? Which subset of those attributes will your target adopter consider? What is the adopter's subjective judgment regarding those attributes? What different weights will the target adopter place on the attributes?   How will the adopter process evaluation criteria?

Motivating Adopters to Learn Use vivid examples and make it come close to home Consider type and amount of information provided; differentiate social product just like a traditional one

Feel

Target Adopter's Belief About Outcomes Know what feelings and beliefs exist and target communications accordingly

The Influence of Trial Adoption Belk's five situational characteristics Physical surroundings Social surroundings Time of day, season, & time since last behaviour How adopter perceives the task Antecedent states

Motivational Forces That Shape Feelings Need for excitement and novelty Need to be accepted and loved Need for catharsis & acting out Need to imitate and match

Do

Determinants of Trial Adoption The Need to Manage a Risk or Low Involvement Perceived Risks of Adoption Social Risk - Is this socially acceptable to people whose opinions I care about? Psychological Risk - Will this yield its promised result? Physical Risk - Does this have any side effects? Can it be harmful to me?  Functional Risk - Will it actually do what it says it will do? Will it work?  Financial Risk - Will it be worth the money I spend?

Determinants of Committed Adoption Adopters believe in and like the product after a positive experience in the trial adoption where they found performance equal to their expectations, and preferably better

Analyzing the Diffusion of Social Products

Predicting and Explaining Social Diffusion and Change

Social Change Theory Influences on Selective Acceptance Adopter's attitudes and values  Compatibility with culture Demonstrability  Costs  Change agent or campaign itself

Managing Social Diffusion

Achieving Rapid Takeoff

Focus on market segments  predisposed to product

Focus on innovators and early adopters

Aim for simplicity, communicability, relative advantage, compatibility, divisibility

Make the product accessible through aggressive outlets

Achieving Rapid Acceleration

Greater social interaction

Greater exposure

Manageability of technical difficulties & costs

Frequency of promotion by public figures

Achieving Rapid Penetration

Price or cost

Multiple uses or consistent users

 

Exercise Charts and Tables We will work in class in groups on these issues for your social marketing projects

Topic	Page (Kotler/Roberto)
Class of Change You Expect	84-85
Analysis of Environmental Data	88-90
Issue Identification and Analysis	89 (Table 4-5)
Decision on Learning Quadrant	95 (Figure 5-3)
Analysis of Learning, Feeling, Doing	99-107
List of Risks	107
Expected Spread of Adoption	120-123
Diffusion of Innovation	126 (Table 6-1)
Influences on Selective Acceptance	129-130