Speaker: Dr. Hongjie Yu, School of Public Health, Fudan University
Hongjie Yu’s research interests include transmission dynamics, epidemiological parameters, disease burden, evaluation of interventions, clinical research to understand pathogen-immune interactions, as well as vaccine efficacy, safety, and cost effectiveness for infectious diseases with public health importance, e.g. COVID-19, zoonoses, influenza, hand-foot-mouth disease, dengue, rabies, pneumococcus and Hib.
Abstract: We collected individual information and contact tracing data from various locations in China. We estimate the incubation period and serial interval of COVID-19, the susceptibility of children, and determine the effectiveness of social distancing/school closure. Results suggest early peak of infectiousness, with possible transmission before the symptom onset. Results also indicate that, as the epidemic progresses, infectious individuals were isolated more quickly, reducing community transmission. Finally, we find that social distancing alone is sufficient to control COVID-19, while proactive school closures can reduce peak incidence and delay the epidemic. Overall, our findings indicate that strict containment measures, movement restrictions, and increased awareness of the population can interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in China.